European Referendum

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Re: European Referendum

Postby mamapup » 26 Jun 2016, 19:16

I just caught this over on Guardian comments section:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image

was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.


Because I can't find the link but have the text.
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Re: European Referendum

Postby Where'stheMistletoe » 26 Jun 2016, 19:42

Thanks MP. Very interesting!
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Re: European Referendum

Postby LucyLastic » 26 Jun 2016, 21:16

This post is a cathartic spew to deal with my 'existential nausea' that has been prompted by the Leave win. I have been feeling down, a bit empty, like the fabric of my whole life has shifted under my feet.

So. I was stuck in France all of last week as we had car problems (nearly €2k of car problems so I am none too pleased, particularly as I had to pay on the day the market crashed). Thus, after all of my pontificating, I was unable to vote and am gutted. I know that one vote (well, two with OH) would not have made the blindest bit of diference. But that doesn't stop me feeling a bit hypocritical and hugely disappointed. While I was staying with my lovely friends (who I met when I lived, studied and worked in France, an option open to me when I was younger thanks to us being part of the European Union), having travelled on holiday there with ease thanks to my EU passport and driven around with no issues (other than the f*cking car!) due to my EU driving licence, I required the services of the RAC who have cross-EU country agreements, which made the whole thing much easier. I also needed urgent medical attention, which I could access and will be reimbursed for, thanks to us being a member of the EU.

If I'm honest, despite all of the above, if it were just a case of a decent 'Leave' campaign winning and me being disappointed, I could live with that. But I don't feel that it was a decent campaign, but one based largely on fanning the flames of fear and ignorance in troubling times. I think that a lot of people voted 'Leave' because they thought it would address the issue of immigration which, of course, it doesn't, and they did not consider or understand the more widespread impact of what 'Leave' actually means to us and to the rest of Europe, and in fact the world. I don't believe that all 'Leave' voters are stupid or racist, far from it, that would be a ridiculous standpoint, given how many people voted to leave. However, I find it incredible that so many people were swayed by, frankly, I don't know what argument, as all I had heard from the 'Leave' campaign is based on reducing immigration (which is governed by free movement, not EU membership) and the redirection of monies we currently pay the EU to the NHS. I call bullsh*t.

The claims made by a dishonest campaign spread by irresponsible media (particularly Murdoch who somehow has considerable influence in government but has no sway with the workings of the EU, and rightly so) have already been proven as outright lies, while UKIP's rehashed Nazi propaganda campaign targeted an already vulnerable population. If this was a 'two fingers' to 'the elite', and it really feels like it was (don't get me wrong, I think this country's governing party and quite possibly many of their opposition deserve a flick of the Vs for what they have successively managed to do to our health system, our local government services, our education system, our police force and our national morale) then it was short-sighted and ill thought out.

I too have signed the petition urging a second referendum, but not just so we get the 'right' result. I still feel that this should be a decision made by the people who we elected to office for this very purpose, who are paid from the taxpayers' coffers and who are supposed to be the voice of the people they represent. This shouldn't have been decided on empty promises made by millionaire politicans who are looking to further their own political and financial ambitions. The number of politicians who have private investments (and therefore personal gains to be made from Britain's privatisation of national services) just beggars belief.

In order to gain British citizenship, applicants are required to pass a test which quizzes them on various aspects of British life. In order to vote, we should have been subjected to a test, to ensure we knew at least the basics of what we were voting about. This all seems so arbitrary, a toss of the coin, oh well, you won, you lost. It's too important, and we have all been fed bullsh*t from both sides.

I feel completely out of touch with those people who voted to leave. I live in the south-east, am university educated, have lived abroad and have mostly worked in public services. I don't consider myself privileged, but am grateful to have had hardworking parents who afforded me opportunities they certainly never had. My FB feed has been full of pro-remain posts for the past months, with the exception of only one friend (from here), so maybe it's that I just have a limited outlook. I really want to know what it is that I have missed or overlooked.

As a leaving comment, I did read a quote from someone, sorry, I can't remember the reference, but it essentially went along the lines of 'Voting 'Leave' to get rid of Cameron, but getting Farage and Johnson is akin to wiping dog sh*t off your shoe then wiping it on your face'. Hear, hear.

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Re: European Referendum

Postby Cofa's Tree » 13 Jul 2016, 20:38

Just interrupting my flooding of Facebook with happy family holiday photos (sorry :? :D ) to say, really? Seriously? Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary? Wtf? As the leader we have been left with, I was a little bit impressed with TM's first speech as PM, but it'll be her actions not her words that I'll judge her on, and then I hear this news.

I wonder how leave voters are feeling now about their voting decision. I read stories of regret but am not sure how much of that is media hype, but then I don't see many voices rejoicing in the outcome of what they voted for. HF, I'd be really interested in your view, your brother's view of the current situation but completely understand if you don't feel the need to respond (and I'm not singling you out, but you are the only openly 'leave' person I know of).
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Re: European Referendum

Postby qbm » 14 Jul 2016, 07:07

CT, I'll tag you in a fb clip I saw yesterday linking TM's speech to her voting record. Really interesting but I'm afraid you may be less inclined to believe what she said after you see it.
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Re: European Referendum

Postby qbm » 14 Jul 2016, 07:12

Oh and no apologies for the holiday pics - they're lovely!!
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Re: European Referendum

Postby Cofa's Tree » 14 Jul 2016, 07:26

Thanks qbm...just empty rhetoric then :(. I wasn't too impressed with her Home Office record, but prepared to give her a chance to make sense of this mess. But that link does not inspire confidence in the outcome.

(And thank you!)
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Re: European Referendum

Postby UnhappyRightFoot » 22 Jul 2016, 22:15

I haven't been sure whether I wanted to reply on here, for a number of reasons. Firstly, I'm not sure my thoughts will make anyone feel any better about things. But mostly, judging by my FB feed, anyone who voted Remain has a pretty dim view of those who voted leave. I've de-friended several people on account of the remarks they have made either personally or via those blogs which just get regurgitated ad nauseum, and there are a few who are sailing very close to the wind. I think people need to be mindful of the fact that when they repeat these things, they "talk" to all their friends and I can do without being called a racists, xenophobe, stupid, gullible, uneducated, northern (strange, if you walk south from my house, your feet start getting wet after about 3 minutes and stay wet until you get to France). I'm none of those things so I would ask people to mind their manners or face the delete button.

So, obviously, I was pleased with the result - and hugely surprised. I really didn't think it would be an out vote. My brother and I cheered rather loudly when I woke up and instantly skyped him!!!! It had been an interesting evening chattering with him as the results came in, thinking it was swinging one way or another. I'd finally called time at about 3.30 and gone to bed so missed the announcement by about 15 minutes!

I have to say, I just felt happy - free. Like Britain had done something momentous and taken a brave and bold step. And that was a good thing. Exciting times are ahead - I truly believe that. I think that there will be turbulence ahead as it will take a while to detangle ourselves but ultimately, I believe Britain will be the better for it. I viewed it as short term pain for long term gain. The song I had in my head all day, that Friday, we Nina Simone's Feeling Good. Genuinely - that's how I feel about it.

Then there is the reaction from the Remainers, which has seemed a bit ridiculous at times. Demanding a second referendum for whatever reason they can find, demanding that MP's vote on the result as most MP's were Remain, now challenging it in the courts. Think about it for a moment. A legal and democratic vote has taken place and you would like MP's to overturn it?? Really?? And what do you suppose will happen at the next general election? (if the Leavers wait that long to speak). It seems as if they are saying that they didn't like that kind of democracy so they'll keep going until they find a democracy which does work for them and they get the result that they want. It's insane. I get that some don't like the result for a miriad of reasons, but the result stands. And it needs to stand – not because I want it to, but that was the election result.

There have been a lot of lies on both sides of the campaign but it didn't take much to see through them or do your own bit of research on a particular point that interests you. The campaign was awful and a totally missed opportunity on the side of remain to explain what was great about the EU. Instead it was just scare story after scare story and the public started to see through it as just desperation. It's a shame. I hope that politicians take stock and realise that the public don’t want that kind of campaigning and politics in the future.

In addition, the media have been a totally one sided nightmare. They seem very quick to blame any kind of bad news (economically) on Brexit but don't really report anything that is positive. Yes, the £ is still down but it had been too high for a while - and it will most likely rise again over the months and years ahead. FTSE dropped like a stone but has anyone mentioned that it recovered a couple of weeks later and has been riding high at levels seen almost a year ago? Big companies have invested (Japans takeover of ARM, Seimens have confirmed they aren't going anywhere) but they are barely being mentioned. The media will end up talking us into a recession at this rate!!! Argh I find it so frustrating.

I was not in the least surprised at Camerons resignation (I'd predicted it on another thread) but Boris did surprise me. I don't follow the theory that because Cameron didn't press the button, he didn't want to - anyone with half a brain would have know Cameron would leave and couldn't trigger Article 50 before he did. I also didn't think Gove stabbing him in the back had much to do with it either - he would have trounced him in the first rounds of the leadership election. I initially speculated that he holds a secret that he was threatened with - first thoughts turning to an addiction or similar. But that doesn't hold true given the fact he is now in the Foreign Office. So there is something there, but I'm not sure what - something for a biography in 40 years time. But the Foreign Office?? That was a curved ball by Mrs May!!! His wings have been very much clipped by the creation of Brexit minister and overseas trade but still! It'll be interesting. He's quite a smart cookie - he's just a blithering idiot!!! I do agree with the general view that, should Brexit not go well, May can hang it round the neck of 3 prominent Brexiteers! BUT she is PM and ultimately, the buck stops with her. And Brexit has to work.

She is impressing me so far. What she is saying, ministerial appointments (Hunt notwithstanding) and her first PMQ's was excellent! But she doesn't really have any opposition in the labour party as they are in a huge shitstorm which isn't going to go away any time soon!

The general online abuse (and IRL) has come around again with the leadership challenges for both the main parties. Andrea Leadsome said something a bit silly and is hounded out of the running by a weekend of appalling treatment. Then Angela Eagle is subjected to death threats, pulls out of that leadership race and is then advised not to hold her constituency surgery. It's crazy. People have differing views - that's all. There is no need to be abusive, rude or threatening because of it. It is a great pity that we are (probably) losing (or not getting) good politicians because of this kind of treatment and that is a disservice to our country. I would never put myself out there and can hardly understand why people do, but thankfully there are those who are strong enough to face it.

On a final note, I have come up with a completely genius plan for the single market/immigration/membership fee conundrum but I don't know how to let David Davies know!!! Really, I've had it sanity checked by a few clever people and they agree that it's brilliant!!!
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Re: European Referendum

Postby ches » 23 Jul 2016, 01:37

Well, my view is that Leave was a democratic vote, it needs to stand, and Britain must make the most of it. I am glad that the primary Leave leaders are out, because it's important that those who felt strongly Remain advocate to get the best deal out of Article 50 and the ensuing negotiations.

It's true that a lot of Leave voters don't fit the stereotype. I have a few in my family. Many did not realize the implications for their own extended family members. They assumed that because they felt close to them they must also be "British" and would have some right to residency or citizenship. Of course, born outside of the UK, to parents with French/British passports, the parents got them one, but not the other, thinking they'd be fine thanks to freedom of movement. Now a brother/sister have British/French citizenship and may be unable in future to live in the same country. Leave has real implications on families, and no voter--leave nor remain--could have thought them all through clearly, not even to how it most affects them, nevermind a country as a whole.

Implicitly I think we have a lower risk perception of the status quo than a significant change, but that it is not necessarily a fair reflection of the ACTUAL risks. Britain is a major G8 economy and will continue to be one. Of course foreign companies will continue to invest. I think the social impacts will be far greater than the economic impacts. Families will be divided, people have to live with xenophobic and racist actions against them. Fortunately only one person has been killed so far. It's the social implications and consequences of a disgusting campaign that the country now has to fight hardest to move beyond.

God help the UK if it ends up like this side of the pond, where racists and privileged arseholes across the nation feel liberated by Donald Trump mainstreaming their right to be bigoted twats, endorsing their feelings of hate. There is no more decency, class, ideology, or principle left in the Republican Party, and the Democratic party will throw all of those out with the bathwater in the face of money to fund their campaigns. As we see attack after attack after attack on civilians across Europe and near Asia, one wonders when these purveyors of hate will realize that by their xenophobia and racism they make this space to corrupt the values decent people hold dear. Bad campaigns lead to bad politics which leads to real consequences, usually for the little guy.

Sadly, both Leave and Remain ran bad campaigns. They are equally to blame, and equally accountable to rectify the situation. The collapse of the Labour opposition is a despicable display of narcissistic opportunism that put the economy as much in jeopardy as the consequences of the Leave vote. When the country most needed the opposition, they all pulled their knives out and went plundering.
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Re: European Referendum

Postby sabrina fair » 23 Jul 2016, 09:50

Ches - that's exactly what's happened this side of the pond too. The mainstreaming of the racist rhetoric as part of the leave campaign has led to racists thinking that 52% of the country agree with them. A significant increase in hate crime since this time last year demonstrates that.

I have been very careful not to accuse all leave voters of being racist, xenophobic or ignorant because it's both not true and not helpful. I have, though, expressed my very real dismay, which hasn't lessened since the result. Apart from the fact that my close friends' right to remain in their home is now not secure and that I grieve for the opportunities that my children may not have that I did (in terms of work, travel, friendships), the massive fall in the pound and the most significant drop in economic activity since the credit crunch have made me so sad for our country. Even if May and others find some kind of reasonable way through in the end, the many hours of time and effort spend trying to get there could have been so much more reasonably be spent improving our welfare system, our health system, tackling poverty, reducing inequality, fostering economic growth and improving air quality, to name just a few. And talking about air quality, the environmental laws that the EU have used to tackle the massive global issue of climate change that is and will be the biggest crisis to face humankind will no longer apply to the UK. I for one have little faith that they will be as well designed or implemented when we are not in the EU. So those who only care about making money (or even those people who are perfectly decent but who need an added incentive to think more than 5 years in the future) will continue to build, trade, and dispose of waste in ways that kill our children through poor air quality and contribute to global warming. These are huge issues we've already been failing to tackle adequately; and the job since the leave vote has become so so much harder.

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Re: European Referendum

Postby Cofa's Tree » 23 Jul 2016, 15:18

Thanks for replying URF - I was genuinely interested in your thoughts now x. I can't feel the positivity yet though. Hmmm, maybe try david.davis.mp@parliament.uk ?!
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Re: European Referendum

Postby qbm » 29 Jul 2016, 07:05

Do any of you have the opportunity to apply for an Irish passport? And if so, are you?
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Re: European Referendum

Postby mamapup » 29 Jul 2016, 20:17

I have been through every non British family member (three [thought four, but no, only three] grandparents and MrC's mum but everyone gave up their nationalities for one reason or another. My only hope is a German passport if permitted, because my grandfather was an Austrian Jew who escaped Austria after it was annexed. Need my mum to see if she can get a German passport and then I can too. What a palaver. Or hoping Scotland votes for independence so I can grab me a Scottish passport (yup, can you hear my thick Edinburgh twang?).

URF, I know you're not a racist or an idiot but I definitely don't agree with much of what you said (as you probably realise!). I have no idea how you can feel free, that's odd as nothing has changed yet and there's a real possibility that nothing will ever change much. All that's happened is a bunch of actual racists have come out and abused people for no sodding reason. Nothing to celebrate at all, in my opinion. Oh, and we have an even more right wing government in power than before. I repeat, nothing to celebrate here.

I think people voted blindly with no thought as to what this meant for anyone. It certainly wasn't a legally binding referendum and the vote was too close to be democratic. I do hear what people say about repeating it ad infinitum because no one will ever be happy, hence thinking parliament needs to ratify the decision.

The EU has done so much for our country and I'm scared so much of it will be undone. I am not blind to the faults of the EU and am clear that had the vote been a sensible one that discussed north atlantic trade deals and the plight of refugees, I might have been less horrified by the result, but it wasn't. I think women, in particular, are going to suffer if EU directives are reversed.

I also massively resent, on an entirely personal note, that I am effectively being stripped of the citizenship with which I most identify. I have always called myself a European first and foremost (and yes, I mean a member of the EU) because my heritage is so mixed). Then I'm British and then I'm English. So I also don't see why a vote by the ignorant mass of this country gets to strip me of my citizenship.
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Re: European Referendum

Postby ches » 29 Jul 2016, 21:43

It always struck me, while traveling in Australia, that Scots, Irish, and Welsh would introduce themselves as such, but English would introduce themselves as British.
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Re: European Referendum

Postby qbm » 30 Jul 2016, 06:55

Interesting ches. Hadn't really thought about it before but I can see why that might be I suppose.

Good luck with the German passport. I've intended to renew my Irish passport and get one for the girls but I've been in no rush. I keep holding out hope for something, we're in Scotland so surely we'll sort something! Then I panic and feel all doom and gloom so my mum posted the forms out to me yesterday.

My other issue is OH. We'll probably get married so he is the spouse of an EU citizen. I tried to research it and it looks like it could be useful so why not?

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